Everybody has an opinion on where rates are headed. Here is how we would think about it if we were the ones buying this fall, with the 30-year holding at 7.40%.
Start With the Payment, Not the Rate
The rate is a number on a page. The payment is what leaves your account on the first of every month, and those two things are not the same conversation.
At 7.40% on a $260,000 loan, which is the Houston median price of $325,000 with 20% down, principal and interest runs about $1,800. Then you add Montgomery County property taxes and homeowners insurance, and around here that is a meaningful addition, not a rounding error. The full number is the one worth making decisions on, and building it out with you is usually the first thing we do.
For scale on what rate movement is actually worth: half a percentage point on that loan is about $88 a month. Knowing that makes it a lot easier to tell a real difference from a headline.
More Inventory Is Worth Something
Houston is sitting at 5.5 months of inventory with 40,192 single-family homes on the market, up 6.3% from last year, and homes are taking 58 days to sell. In Conroe Southeast inventory is at 5.3 months.
That is a very different experience than a market with six weeks of supply. You get time to look, time to inspect, and standing to ask for a credit. Anybody who shopped around here in 2021 knows exactly what that is worth.
Waiting on Rates Is a Bet, Not a Plan
Maybe rates come down next year. The Fed’s own September projections pointed the other way for the rest of 2026, toward one more quarter-point increase, and the next meeting is October 27 and 28. Nobody we know has a reliable read much past that.
What we do know is that if rates fall, the buyers sitting on the sidelines tend to come back all at once, and they come back into a market where you would be bidding against them instead of negotiating with a seller. If rates fall, you refinance. If they do not, you already own the house.
And worth repeating: the Fed does not set your 30-year fixed. Your rate comes out of the bond market, and the 10-year Treasury is the thing to watch. Those are two different rates driven by two different things. We broke that down here.
Ask About a Buydown Before You Ask for a Price Cut
This is still the most underused tool out there. A 2-1 buydown drops your rate two full points the first year and one point the second before it settles at your note rate. On that $260,000 loan it is roughly $340 a month off in year one.
Sellers will often fund it as a concession, and with inventory where it is, a fair number of them will listen. Dollar for dollar it usually helps your monthly payment more than an equivalent price reduction would.
Get Pre-Approved Before You Tour
Not pre-qualified, pre-approved. It means we have actually looked at your income, your credit, and your assets, and we know what works. It makes your offer stronger when you find the one, and it saves you from falling for a house that was never in range to begin with.
If you are not sure where you stand, that is a short conversation, and it costs you nothing to have it.